Raila Can’t Be Wished Away

While it is a great publicity stance to invite Kalonzo Musyoka and Raila Odinga to State House for pictures, It is important to understand the implications. At one point the most sought after political operative was William Ruto. With the inauguration behind us, a new political reality is settling in and it looks like all the operatives are well positioned and aware of their place in the new dispensation. Previously, alliances were built around the fear of or for Raila but this time round, no alliances are cropping up but there is still the fear for and of Raila.

Love him or hate him, Raila is the heartbeat of Kenyan politics. Newspaper sales came to an all time low with his absence and I must say it was an act of political genius to go to South Africa, away from the prying eyes of Kenyan journalist while releasing photos that showed them as down to earth leaders peacefully enjoying a break from kenya’s heated political stage. Many analysts will come to appreciate the move when history takes its place.

Do not be fooled, Uhuru and Ruto are not extending an olive branch to Raila because they care to do so but because they are boxed into a corner where the only exit is Raila’s good will. How is it so? Ask Richard Nixon. Watergate was a huge PR problem for Nixon despite putting more emphasis  on PR than any of his predecessors. Nixon’s problem was not the break in itself but to convince the public that he played no role in the cover-up of a crime and that he had no idea as to who ordered the break in. Which was not true. There are these words that haunt and will continue to haunt the Uhuru administration “I look forward to working with you once some six people decide.” When the chips finally fall in place, Kenyans will realize what a defining moment that was and it is from those words along with the fact that Raila cannot be wished away that the Uhuru administration is bending over backwards to accommodate Raila. A PR problem is in the horizon and how best to deal with it than to recruit the victim?

Raila in his part is savoring the moment. With one interview, Raila has altered the plans Uhuru and Ruto had for their administration and with one swoop, the Enigma of Kenyan politics is back on the drivers seat. At the BBC interview, Raila talked of other means of keeping the government honest, something that has thrown panic into the administration. They know the Enigma well having been his students and they know that he does not say such things without having something to back it up. So now as Uhuru and Ruto fill up their cabinet positions, they are scratching their heads wondering where they lost the lock of political irrelevance they had purchased for Raila cos now he posses the biggest threat to their plans especially after refusing to accept their trap. Armed with carrots that they dangled, unknown to Ruto and Uhuru was that they were dealing with an evolving Enigma. While they thought he was a rabbit, Raila had evolved into a turtle, exhibiting all the patience that saw him through the coalition government. So no carrots for the Enigma this time. Its getting interesting……

Related articles

• Mr. Co-President (realtalkwitheric.wordpress.com)
• Museveni must respect Kenyans and ICC (lyneoyugi.wordpress.com)
• Uhuru, Ruto meet Odinga and Kalonzo (capitalfm.co.ke)

Mr. Co-President

Chants of “Ni mkate full” filled the air at Kasarani as Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto were inaugurated to lead Kenya. Oblivious to the fact that the constitution provides for devolution and the fact that Uhuru and Ruto signed a pre-election pact that made them co-presidents. Ruto gets 50% and Uhuru gets 50%. So here we are at the inauguration ceremony and such chants fill the air.

Kenya! there is a problem. I say there is a problem due to the fact that there were two loud messages at Kasarani that fell on deaf ears. Prior to the gathering at Kasarani, there had been a common enemy and a common task to rally behind(Raila) but at Kasarani, the noise from the fading enemy muzzled the message from a house divided.

The first message was in the speech eloquently delivered with the pride and passion of a true leader who believes that he is rightfully where he is supposed to be and owes no gratitude to anyone but his hard work. Ruto with utmost humility clearly said that he had arrived ready to work as an equal and with a mandate to do so. He demanded his position in the government and clearly sent a warning short to the Moi family that he is thankful to them but it was time for them to line up behind him or it will be a bruising battle ahead. How is it so? Well. Ruto in his speech went further than what Deputy Presidents do to the extent that the headlines the following day went into a frenzy talking of the most powerful Deputy President. The papers were right but lost in the analysis was the fact that Ruto a besieged man had no option but to sound an alarm and to reassure his people that he was relevant. The Moi’s are playing vultures, the Kenyatta’s have fattened the prey and are waiting to fell it before the Moi’s move in to take the remains. Ruto on the other hand is not going out easy, he has the numbers and no amount of intimidation will break him. Is that true? Well, I could be wrong but this is what I see. Ruto’s case at the hague has left him an empty shell. In 2008, I was told by some PNU sympathizers that Ruto is a dead man walking. In our discussions, they had claimed that the PEV were planned and were very bitter with Ruto. Fast forward to now, they still maintain that the PEV were planned but are silent on Ruto’s involvement. They now say that Kibaki and Raila should be held responsible. When you probe further about Ruto, you realize that the silence is not a denial but a distraction. This tells me that Ruto is not out of the woods with them. They understand that Ruto has a constituency that they cannot upset right now but as soon as they replace him as the leader of that consituency, they will have their way with him and that is where the Moi’s come in and are waiting.

The second message at Kasarani was sent by the predominantly TNA crowd but delivered by Uhuru. What was said was that there was a whole loaf on the table and it would not be shared. When all is said and done historians will ponder at how both sides missed what the other side said. The reality is that the air was so polluted with the hate for Raila that both sides missed the noise that the other side was making. Having shouted so loudly that Raila was the reason for his problems at the ICC, Ruto missed the confession of the crowd at Kasarani telling him that “we will see you at the Hague.” All around Ruto were his accusers smiling at him and waiting for his demise was the professor of politics whose project, Ruto was oiling the engine. Many will wonder why Ruto cried when he was among his people? Here at Kasarani, amongst strangers there were no tears. Take your time to ponder that question. That is the mark of a warrior besieged knowing that the end is here and all the silver and gold he has taken, cannot replace the trust of the people.

So depending on your side of the political divide, you will only hear one side but the truth is that until there is a resolution, the elephant in the room continues to fatten and will soon take up all the room and at that point, some will suffocate, while the house breaks into pieces…..